US sanctions threaten China’s Iranian oil lifeline as Hormuz blockade cuts imports 48%

US sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports are exacerbating China's dependence on Middle Eastern crude, according to recent data. Chinese imports from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted by 48% since the Iran war began, falling to an average of 530,000 barrels a day in July and August. This represents a 72% drop from their peak in October 2024, when imports amounted to about 1.9 million barrels per day.

The sanctions, expanded by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have targeted more than 60 entities, but major Chinese banks have been spared. China, the world's largest crude importer, relies heavily on the Middle East, with Iran supplying roughly half of its crude needs. Beijing has responded to the sanctions with a firm stance, warning of possible sanctions on foreign institutions to safeguard its interests.

The blockade and attacks on shipping routes have also disrupted alternative routes, such as the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, which are time-consuming and more expensive. China's VLCCs are loading in Sidi Kerir, Egypt, but the longer voyage via the Cape of Good Hope to Asia is taking around 50 days. State-owned shipping companies have stopped using Bab Al Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, and ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar in Oman and Fujairah in the UAE are becoming more popular.

However, these routes remain unsafe, and congestion at Oman's port of Sohar may lead to Iranian strikes targeting these transfers. While China's strategic reserves can cover four months of demand, higher freight costs and global tight supply are expected to pressure Beijing's crude supplies. China may turn to commercial inventories and seek additional supplies from Russia and other producers, but Iran remains a critical source of discounted oil.