Tarifpolitik: Mehr Kaufkraft – Tariflöhne steigen wohl stärker als Preise

In Germany, it is anticipated that wage levels will rise more rapidly than consumer prices this year, according to calculations based on Tarifarchiv data from the Hans-Böckler-Stiftung's trade union organization. Consequently, workers could experience a real increase in wages of 0.7 percent after adjusting for inflation, resulting in greater purchasing power. This potential increase in disposable income could stimulate economic activity.

The calculations take into account wage agreements signed in the first half of the current year, as well as the agreed-upon pay increases for 2026 in previous years. Based on these calculations, nominal wage increases are projected to be around 3.1 percent for the ongoing year, compared to an average increase of 2.4 percent in consumer prices throughout the first half of the year. For 2025, the WSI Tarifarchiv predicts an average annual rise in wage levels of 2.6 percent, with a real wage boost of 0.4 percent.

These wage hikes will benefit over 15 million workers, according to the data. Negotiations are still ongoing in some major industries, such as retail, while metal and electrical manufacturing industries commence their wage discussions in the autumn. "Given that inflation rates may still be somewhat higher than anticipated, the outcome of the remaining wage negotiations will determine whether purchasing power is secured by the end of the year," said Thorsten Schulten, head of the WSI Tarifarchiv.

Despite the wage decline during the crisis years of 2021 to 2023, the WSI has not yet fully compensated for this effect. In July of this year, Germany's inflation rate reached 2.8 percent, driven by rising energy prices following the end of the two-month fuel rebate.