인공지능, 뜨겁게 낙관하고 차갑게 계산하자 [아침햇발]

The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the world, much like how the focus on information technology (IT) infrastructure in the 1990s propelled South Korea to the top of the knowledge economy. As AI technologies continue to proliferate, their economic opportunities are expected to be even greater for a country like South Korea, which possesses a strong manufacturing base.

This has led to a sense of urgency among the government, businesses, and individuals. President Yoon Suk-yeol announced three major mega-projects totaling 4.755 trillion won, pledging support to Samsung Electronics CEO Lee Jae-yong and SK Group CEO Byung-joon Eksakul. The government is constructing semiconductor plants, data centers, power plants, and dams, moving swiftly to overcome any obstacles.

It is considering nationalizing nuclear power plant construction and increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) power generation to meet the projected increase in electricity demand by 2040. This optimism is based on the assumption that massive data center investments for AI services will continue. However, this premise is now being challenged as US-based data center projects have been delayed by 30-50%, due to a combination of financial and physical reasons.

These include overinvestment in AI technologies, dwindling cash reserves of major players like Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, high borrowing costs, and growing opposition to data center construction due to power and water supply, noise issues, and opposition from local politicians during the midterm elections. The concern is that overinvestment in AI technologies and the associated financial risks could lead to a credit crunch and even a financial crisis.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has drawn parallels between the current AI boom and historical bubbles such as the 1840s UK railway craze, the 1920s power expansion, and the 1990s dot-com bubble. The IMF warns that the current investment frenzy could lead to a bubble burst, with negative consequences for the broader economy, including fluctuations in exchange rates, growth, and consumer confidence.

For investors, it is crucial to recognize and manage the risks associated with AI investments, especially for individual investors who should avoid excessive leverage through stock purchases, and for governments, which should carefully review mega-projects like the 18.4 gigawatt data center investments.