Software is crushing chips by a record margin: Chart of the Day

Software stocks have surged to record highs while chip stocks remain in a bear market, with Nvidia being an exception. Chip stocks reached their peak on June 22, while software stocks hit their bottom around the same time, marking a reversal of fortunes. When stripping out the megacaps, the symmetry between the two groups is striking.

The equal-weight SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW) is up about 24% since June 22, while the equal-weight SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) is down about 24%. This 50-point gap represents the widest software-over-chips move in the ETFs history since 2011. Of 45 software stocks in a Yahoo Finance basket, 37 have risen since then, while 59 out of 60 chip stocks have fallen.

The financial impact is immense, with Microsoft adding nearly $900 billion in market value and Micron, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Arm, and AMD losing roughly $950 billion collectively. Fundstrat's Mark Newton suggests software had already experienced this correction before and is now trading better. Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, and Microsoft made lows within three sessions following the software bottom.

The S&P North American Technology Software Index gained about 19% from June 22 to the present, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 20%. This is the largest software-over-chips gap in common data since 1994, marking the biggest two-month reversal in history. Nvidia, despite its recent sell-off, has held up more like the megacaps, making the upcoming earnings week particularly interesting.