Six months later, Hormuz still waits for calm

Six months after the start of the Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains far from returning to its pre-war state. Commercial shipping is operating at only a fraction of its former pace, with thousands of sailors stranded in the Gulf. The crucial waterway, vital for global energy supplies, now handles an average of just 15 commodity carrier transits per day between July 8 and August 22, a stark contrast to the 95 transits per day seen in February.

Iran's blockade of the strait, following US-Israeli strikes, is largely responsible for this dramatic decline.

Traffic had improved somewhat after a US-Iran agreement in June, averaging 36 transits per day. However, this progress was short-lived, as hostilities resumed on July 8 and have since led to further declines. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have issued warnings about a 1,400-square-kilometre danger zone where mines may be present.

Before the conflict, vessels primarily followed a central route through the strait recognized by the International Maritime Organization. Now, ships are utilizing two alternative corridors - one close to Iran's coast and another along Oman's coast. During a short period of calm between June 17 and July 7, about nine ships per day used the Iranian route and eight used the Omani route.

Since July 8, however, around two-thirds of transits have become 'dark', meaning their exact routes cannot be determined. This uncertainty is attributed to disabled transponders, signal jamming, and gaps in satellite imagery.

The human toll of the disruption is also significant. Around 500 ships and 6,000 sailors remain stranded in the Gulf, according to the International Maritime Organization. Efforts to evacuate these stranded seafarers have been launched, but were suspended after an attack on a vessel. At least 20 sailors and dockworkers have lost their lives in incidents or attacks in the region during the past six months.

The strait's normal role in transporting around one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports makes the prolonged disruption a major concern for energy markets and global trade.