Russia Eyes Central Asia as a Safe Haven for Its Defense Industry
With Russian infrastructure being pummeled by Ukrainian drones, the Kremlin is hoping to sustain its war effort in Ukraine going by deepening defense cooperation with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It is uncertain, however, whether Astana and Tashkent will go along with Moscow’s wishes. Russia appears to be primarily interested in outsourcing the manufacture of arms, establishing assembly lines and…
Russian defense officials are exploring Central Asia as a potential sanctuary for its defense industry amid Ukraine's escalating drone attacks. The Kremlin aims to maintain its war effort by fostering defense cooperation with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, according to RFE/RL. However, it remains uncertain whether Astana and Tashkent will comply with Moscow's proposals.
Russia's primary interest appears to lie in outsourcing the production of arms, constructing assembly lines, and setting up maintenance facilities in Central Asian nations, thereby protecting them from Ukrainian drones, as reported by RFE/RL. Ukrainian aggression has intensified, but Kyiv is unlikely to strike Kazakhstani territory, as it would be perceived as a significant escalation, stated defense analyst Derek Bisaccio.
A shift in the regional power dynamics, with Russia potentially becoming an arms importer rather than exporter, would mark a significant change. For many years, Russia has been the main supplier of weapons to Central Asian states, a position that began to erode in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan currently house facilities capable of sustaining Russian military equipment, including the Semey Engineering plant and Almaty's Aircraft Repair Plant in Kazakhstan, as well as the Chirchik Aircraft Repair Plant in Uzbekistan.
Both countries' leaders may find the challenges of expanding defense ties with Russia outweigh the benefits. The Kazakh Defense Ministry has yet to respond to RFE/RL's inquiry regarding the matter, while Uzbek authorities have not commented. Regional expert Pavel Baev from the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) expressed little enthusiasm for Astana and Tashkent embracing Moscow's "ill-advised plan," citing the lack of incentives for the Central Asian nations.
The war has significantly strained Russia's financial resources, making it difficult to fund large-scale projects. Russia has had to postpone major initiatives in Central Asia, such as nuclear power plant construction, due to cash-flow issues faced by the state-controlled nuclear company, Rosatom. Additionally, Russian state-owned entities have faced contract cancellations for power plant projects in Kazakhstan owing to financing complications.
Despite these challenges, Russia continues to project an image of normalcy. In August 18, the Sputnik Kyrgyzstan outlet reported that the Russia-Kyrgyzstan Development Fund, an entity under Moscow's Eurasian Economic Union, was prepared to finance $660 million in infrastructure projects to alleviate Kyrgyzstan's electricity shortage.
However, no details were provided on how the projects would be funded. The RKDF was established in 2014 under the Kremlin's leadership with the objective of promoting economic cooperation and modernizing the Kyrgyz economy to facilitate Eurasian integration. Its capitalization in 2025 stands at $574 million.
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