RBI warns food, fuel costs could reignite broader inflation
Most high-frequency indicators showed sustained manufacturing and services activity in July. Merchandise exports and imports experienced double-digit expansion, continuing Q1 momentum. Headline consumer price index inflation edged up, primarily due to supply-side pressures. Stable core inflation reaffirmed lower pass-through of cost pressures to consumers. Liquidity conditions eased, supporting…
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cautioned that rising food, fuel, and other input costs could reignite broader inflation, according to the RBI Bulletin for August. Higher commodity prices could push up prices across the economy, the article in the bulletin stated.
The recovery in southwest monsoon rains in July helped kharif crop sowing return to near-normal acreage, partly offsetting some of the risks to the agriculture sector, as reported by the article. However, the global economic outlook remains influenced by geopolitical tensions in West Asia and new tariffs imposed by the US, according to the RBI's State of the Economy article.
Despite the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation exceeding the target, it was mainly due to supply-side pressures, the article added. Stable core inflation indicated that the cost pressures were not being fully passed on. Liquidity conditions improved, aiding credit growth and ongoing investment activity, while foreign capital inflows rebounded, bolstering the external sector, the RBI further explained.
Financial conditions are characterized by high credit growth, ample liquidity, and falling yields on government securities, supported by a surge in capital inflows. However, the RBI noted that the views expressed in the Bulletin are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Reserve Bank of India.
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