Poll Gives Ken Paxton 4 Warning Signs in Texas Race Against James Talarico

A new poll of the Texas Senate race has revealed four warning signs for Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as he competes against Democratic state Representative James Talarico in the 2026 midterm elections. Despite Texas traditionally being a Republican-leaning state, recent polls have given Talarico a slim lead over Paxton.

Democrats see flipping Texas as an uphill battle, but believe 2026 may be the year they can succeed due to several factors, including Trump’s declining national approval rating, economic concerns, and dissatisfaction with Republican candidates.

Paxton, who unseated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in the primary, has seen a drop in his support since the previous June poll. In the latest survey, he stands at 39 percent, while Talarico leads with 42 percent. A significant concern for Paxton is that his Republican support has fallen from 84 percent to 79 percent, while Talarico has garnered 5 percent of Republican votes. Independents, a crucial voting bloc, favor Talarico at 37 percent to Paxton's 11 percent.

The poll also highlights voter enthusiasm, with 50 percent of Democrats "extremely" motivated to vote, compared to 39 percent of Republicans and 20 percent of independents. Trump’s approval rating in Texas is below 50 percent, with 51 percent disapproving of his job performance and only 43 percent approving. Historically, when a president is unpopular, his party loses seats in midterms, which could affect the Republican candidate in Texas.