Nvidia faces growth test as Rubin debut meets AI financing scrutiny

Nvidia's upcoming results on August 25 will test if its new Rubin chips can fuel another surge in growth, as some investors express concerns about the longevity of the AI spending surge. The chipmaker has reaped the biggest gains from the race to construct AI infrastructure, but its stock has faced pressure due to Nvidia's billions in investments back into the AI ecosystem, raising doubts about its role in circular deals that might inflate demand artificially and skew economic indicators.

Nvidia's shares have climbed 11.8% this year, trailing major rivals and even briefly letting Apple become the world's most valuable company. Analysts anticipate the company's second-quarter revenue to nearly double to $92.18 billion, the fastest expansion in seven quarters, fueled by a more than double increase in data center sales, according to LSEG data.

However, investors are growing concerned about Nvidia's ability to shift customers from their Blackwell chips to the upcoming Vera Rubin processors, with shipments anticipated to commence this autumn. This growth is powered by a spending frenzy by Big Tech on data centers, projected to surpass $730 billion this year, as well as hefty outlays from smaller, AI-centric cloud firms such as CoreWeave, which are funded by Nvidia.

The financing frenzy intensified after Nvidia facilitated $500 billion in loans from six major U.S. banks for its customers building AI infrastructure. Nvidia also pledged to guarantee up to $105 billion to assist OpenAI in leasing a substantial data center in Ohio for 20 years, one of its largest AI financing commitments. This position as a central bank in the AI sector has raised concerns, with Brian Mulberry, a Zacks Investment Management chief strategist, noting that Nvidia is a central bank in the AI space, potentially exposing them to total AI exposure with no diversification.

The key for this to succeed is continued growth in the adoption of AI tools. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang defended the company's strategy, stating that Nvidia is flush with cash to support AI buildouts by customers experiencing rapid growth but still operating at a loss. Huang claimed that the Ohio data-center guarantee does not constitute circular financing, as OpenAI would ultimately pay for the lease, and Nvidia is aiding in financing, securing data centers, power supplies, and facilities to house its chips for decades.