India’s two-tiered coking coal market highlights growing role of smaller buyers

India's rising importance in the global metallurgical coal market is increasingly being driven by a diverse network of smaller steelmakers, merchant cokeries, and traders, rather than just the country's large steel producers. As China's demand growth slows, India is projected to become the primary source of incremental seaborne met coal demand through 2031, with imports expected to surge from 100 million metric tons in 2028 to 127 million metric tons in 2031.

This growth is fueled by the expansion of blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) production, a process heavily relied upon by Indian steelmakers like JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Steel Authority of India Ltd. in support of the National Steel Policy's goal of reaching 300 million metric tons of annual crude steel production by 2030.

While many Western nations are shifting towards electric arc furnace (EAF) processes to meet decarbonization targets, Indian producers continue to invest in BF-BOF capacity, ensuring their continued relevance to the seaborne market. The trend towards Indian spot market activity is further highlighted by the launch of Platts Premium Mid Vol Hard Coking Coal CFR India assessment in October 2024, which provides a more transparent view of Indian spot procurement activity.

This increase in transparency has helped to reveal the diversity of India's buyer base, which now includes integrated steelmakers, smaller mills, merchant cokeries, and traders. These smaller players, while individually less powerful, collectively represent a significant industrial force whose procurement decisions can have a noticeable impact on spot market dynamics.