Expert Explains: Why Xi Jinping may be keeping India guessing over his BRICS summit participation

Chinese President Xi Jinping's potential absence from the 2025 BRICS summit in Brazil has been the subject of much speculation. Officially, the Chinese government announced his non-attendance weeks before the event, but no confirmation has been made for the upcoming summit in New Delhi on September 12-13. Reuters reported on August 24 that Xi was likely to attend with a large delegation, marking his first visit to India in seven years.

However, India's announcement of standardizing 27 names in Arunachal Pradesh has led to strong reactions from China's strategic affairs community, indicating a possible surprise decision.

Senior fellow Liu Zongyi of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies noted that India's position remains firm, despite recent efforts to improve bilateral relations. A China Daily editorial stated that the history of the China-India boundary calls for caution rather than political posturing. A foreign affairs blogger asked if Modi was trying to gain the upper hand by acting first before the BRICS meet.

The context for Xi's past absence includes his skipped 2023 BRICS and 2023 G20 summits. Some analysts suggested that Modi's role as the guest of honor during his state visit to Brazil may have influenced Xi's decisions. In 2023, Xi's absence at the G20 summit was seen as a blow to India, as Xi had never missed a G20 summit since taking office in 2012.

A crucial factor in Xi's decision may have been the Chinese announcement of new names for Indian places on the LAC before the 2023 BRICS event. India responded with large-scale military exercises along its border. The last friendly "Chennai connect" summit between the two leaders was held in 2019, and their meeting in Kazan, Russia, in 2024 marked a reset in their relationship.

Despite Modi's attendance at the SCO leaders' meet in Tianjin last year, a confirmation of Xi's attendance at the BRICS summit is still awaited. Some experts suggest that Beijing might be using Xi's potential absence to see New Delhi move favorably on various issues, while others believe it could be a deliberate move to send a larger message about India's military alignment with Washington.