EUR/USD Price Forecast: Corrects further as US Dollar extends recovery

The Euro slipped slightly against the US Dollar on Tuesday, moving lower from its four-day high of 1.1711 to around 1.1655 in European trading hours. This downward trend is attributed to the US Dollar's strengthening amid anticipation of key U.S. economic data and proceedings at the Jackson Hole Symposium. At the time of reporting, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the Greenback's value against six major currencies, had risen by 0.1 to near 99.07.

Financial analysts suggest that while the US Dollar's recent gains are due to caution surrounding upcoming events, there is no indication of a shift in the overall trend. Experts at Scotiabank note that "calendar and event risk this week is significant," implying that there may be moderate gains in the US Dollar in the short term as investors reduce their positions.

However, they caution that the technical outlook for the US Dollar remains weak, with bearish trends persisting despite some moderation in the dollar's decline. The Euro's perspective remains positive, as expectations of a September interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) bolster its outlook. Analysts at Nomura predict a possible rate increase in September, supported by the latest ECB Consumer Expectations Survey.

This survey indicates a normalization of inflation expectations, with both 3-year and 5-year ahead median inflation expectations declining. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at approximately 1.1654, with a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1577. This suggests continued support from buyers.

The Relative Strength Index (14) is in strong positive territory near 67, indicating robust but not extreme upside momentum. Support levels lie at the June 15 high (1.1622) and the 20-day EMA (1.1577), while the next resistance lies at the August high (1.1711). To resume an uptrend, the pair would need to break decisively above 1.1711; should it surpass the May high near 1.1800, the major hurdle would be reached.