Editorial: Japan gov't linking defense buildup to growth risks runaway spending

The Defense of Japan 2026 white paper, for the first time under the Sanae Takaichi Cabinet, emphasizes that Japan must prepare for new types of warfare and protracted conflicts. It advocates for bolstering the defense industry's foundations and linking investment in the sector to economic growth. The administration aims to boost industrial competitiveness by integrating advanced military technologies into civilian products.

The government is also concerned about defense-related companies withdrawing due to low profitability, and plans to deepen its involvement by investing in related businesses. However, there is a risk in equating stronger defense capabilities with economic growth, as it may spur excessive defense spending increases.

Since the 2022 revision of key national security documents, Japan's defense spending has increased significantly, with the Takaichi Cabinet achieving the ambitious goal of doubling defense spending to 2% of GDP by fiscal 2027 two years early. Yet, doubts arise regarding the government's ability to effectively manage the budget, as a large portion of the funds appropriated has gone unspent.

Intensifying pressure from the United States, under the Trump administration, is pushing allies to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP. If Japan were to match this figure, its defense budget would reach approximately 24 trillion yen, far exceeding the current fiscal 2025 budget. The Takaichi administration is persisting with its defense buildup policy, but there is no clear path to securing the necessary funds.

As China operates aircraft carriers actively in the Pacific around Japan, and military cooperation between North Korea and Russia intensifies, the security situation in East Asia is worsening. While the Japanese government rightly acknowledges the evolving threats, it must also avoid falling into an endless arms race. The Takaichi government lacks a diplomatic strategy to prevent conflicts from occurring. Instead, it should prioritize measures to stabilize the region.