Crude awakening: As Russia, Iran face Trump heat, can Venezuela fill India’s oil gap?

The turmoil in global crude oil markets persists, with the United States tightening its grip on Iran through economic measures. A new bill will soon be voted on, granting the US President the authority to impose up to 100% tariffs on Russian crude imports. Simultaneously, India, a major oil importer, faces crucial questions regarding its oil supply and prices should Iran's oil exports cease due to secondary sanctions.

India currently receives a significant portion of its oil from Russia, accounting for over 50% of its crude basket. With the prospect of Russian oil being targeted by US tariffs of up to 100%, the nation must consider alternative suppliers. The Middle East crisis has pushed Russia's share in India's crude oil imports to over 50%, leaving a gap that needs to be filled.

Venezuela, a new addition to India's list of top crude suppliers, has emerged as a potential candidate to fill this gap. However, the country faces several challenges in becoming a reliable source for India. Venezuela's oil capacities are limited, and the United States remains its top export market. According to Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Vice President, Commodity Markets - Oil at Rystad Energy, Venezuelan exports averaged around 1 million barrels per day in March 2026, with India receiving approximately 300-400 thousand barrels per day.

US refiners prioritize access to Venezuelan crude due to their need to maximize residue-conversion units, leaving India as the second largest buyer.

While Venezuela has become a significant supplier for India, recently delivering around 8% of India's crude imports, there are inherent limitations to its ability to replace the lack of Russian oil in the long term.