Coronation Projects Naira to Trade at N1,400/$ in H2 2026
Kayode Tokede Analysts at Coronation Research has projected the Naira to trade at N1,400 against the dollar in the second half (H2) of 2026, stressing that the local currency will
Analysts at Coronation Research have forecasted the Nigerian Naira to trade at N1,400 per US dollar in the second half of 2026. This projection was presented by the Head of Coronation Research, Macrorearch, Adeyemi Temilola, during the first half 2026 Capital Market Review and Outlook in Lagos. Temilola explained that the local currency is expected to gradually depreciate by year-end.
She highlighted several factors that would shape the currency's performance, including global economic growth, inflation, and crude oil prices. In the first half of 2026, the Naira had outperformed against the dollar, driven by record portfolio inflows into Open Market Operation (OMO) bills and fixed-income securities, with a 83.8% year-over-year increase. This had given the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) room to prioritize credibility over speed while maintaining currency stability.
According to Temilola, the base case assumes Brent crude stabilizes below $80 per barrel, assuming the peace memorandum holds. However, if the price windfall normalizes while domestic crude output remains weak, it could put fiscal and foreign exchange stability under pressure, despite GDP expansion.
Six swing factors were identified for H2 2026, including full reopening versus renewed escalation, S&P upgrading Nigeria's credit rating to B in May, potential upgrades by Fitch and Moody's based on fiscal and foreign exchange transparency, and the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) balances' carry-trade inflows against increasing credit strain on the real sector.
Temilola suggested that fixed-income elevated stop rates (18.3%+ on long bonds) present attractive entry points for investors who can lock in duration before an eventual easing cycle. She also noted that naira stability through H1 2026 supports import-dependent and naira-denominated positioning, but a drift toward N1,400 against the dollar in H2 2026 recommends hedged foreign exchange exposure into the fourth quarter of 2026.
Non-oil sectors, which account for 96.08% of GDP, favor ICT, trade, agriculture, and select industrial names over oil-linked plays. High-for-longer rates pose a headwind for credit-intensive sectors and private investment recovery.
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