Chinese Yuan: Trade risks limit gains against US Dollar – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that reports of potential US tariffs on Chinese goods and the PBoC’s resistance to rapid Renminbi (RMB) gains are likely to limit further downside in USD/CNH.
China's yuan faces trade risks that may limit gains against the US dollar, according to OCBC's Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong. The potential US tariffs on Chinese goods and the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) reluctance to allow rapid Renminbi (RMB) appreciation may restrict further downside in USD/CNH. Despite the overall bias for RMB appreciation, the pair is trading near recent lows, indicating a mild bearish momentum.
Reports suggest that the US could impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods prior to the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting. However, the RMB response has been modest so far, with USD/CNH still trading close to recent lows, implying that markets do not view this as a significant escalation risk at present. The PBoC had already signaled a cautious stance against rapid RMB gains, as evidenced by Monday's fixing being significantly higher than market expectations.
Meanwhile, the US dollar has also shown strength, potentially curbing further gains for the RMB. The daily chart for RMB reveals mild bearish momentum, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a tentative upward shift from oversold conditions. While a modest rebound remains a possibility, resistance at 6.74 and support at 6.72 and 6.70 levels remain key factors to watch.
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