CBK: Kenyan farmers expect to cut maize, wheat and rice acreage as weather risks mount

A Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) survey reveals Kenyan farmers anticipate a decrease in acreage for rice, wheat, and maize due to poor rainfall and doubts over farm profits. Rice is expected to suffer the most significant reduction, with a Balance of Opinion (BOO) of -50%. Wheat follows at -27%, while maize, beans, and onions also have negative acreage expectations.

Conversely, farmers anticipate expanding acreage for cabbage, tomatoes, potatoes, sugarcane, kale, and spinach, with cabbages, tomatoes, and sugarcane showing strong positive expectations. The shift in planting decisions occurs alongside a less optimistic outlook for harvests of several staple crops, with rice showing a -100% BOO for expected output, millet at -75%, and wheat at -40%.

Beans recorded -11%, while onions and potatoes had -12% and -3%, respectively. The rice figure does not imply a 100% production decrease; CBK's Balance of Opinion indicates the net direction of farmers' expectations, not the magnitude of actual production changes. The weaker outlook stems from anticipated weather impacts on crop production, particularly the failed maize crop in the North Rift and parts of Western Kenya due to insufficient rainfall.

Maize expectations were slightly positive at 2%, while farmers were more optimistic about sugarcane (75%), tomatoes (54%), carrots (33%), cabbages (31%), and spinach (20%). The survey indicates that 78% of farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, while 22% depend mainly on irrigation. CBK noted a decline in optimism about the agriculture sector compared to May, with 67.1% expecting improvement over the next three months, down from 81.5% in May.