Australian bank investors brace for tough times as mortgage demand plummets

Australian investors are expressing concern over the performance of the nation's largest banks, as a decrease in mortgage lending threatens their growth potential and intensifies competition for borrowers. The "Big Four" banks, comprising ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank, and Westpac, each reported a double-digit decline in home loan applications due to recent tax policy changes and higher interest rates.

The outlook for the sector has become increasingly bearish, with senior investment analyst Minh Pham stating that "the outlook is deteriorating and there's not a whole lot of bright spots."

The dominance of these banks in the Australian mortgage market, which they control over 70% of, has contributed to their high valuations. On a forward price-to-earnings ratio, they are more expensive than international counterparts like JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and HSBC. Despite share price declines of 2% to 12% for three of the four major Australian banks this year, they remain more expensive than foreign rivals, which have gained between 11% and 30%.

Housing demand in Australia has weakened since the government eliminated tax incentives for property investors, posing a significant threat to the banks' revenue streams. Auction clearance rates have fallen to their lowest levels in six years, and national average prices have dropped about 2% over the past four months. Consequently, home loan applications have plummeted, with Westpac reporting a 20% decline in its third-quarter update.

National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank also reported a 15% drop in loan applications, while ANZ indicated a 12% decrease.

Citi has forecast a substantial slowdown in revenue growth for the sector to 2.9% in the 2027 financial year from 4.4%. While Citi believes banks with a larger focus on business lending will fare better, investors are questioning how much that can offset the challenges facing the retail segment. The wealth effect from softer house prices and reduced consumer spending could further impact the business credit growth pipeline.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley warn of downside risks to 2027 earnings due to a slowing mortgage market, rising competition, and weaker credit quality, suggesting a potential de-rating of the banks' shares.

The banks' heavy ownership in the Australian equity market, accounting for about 24% of the S&P/ASX 200 index, could also weigh on overall market performance. As a result, some investors are questioning whether the banks' elevated valuations are justified, with VanEck's Cameron McCormack suggesting that they may be "a little bit too expensive." McCormack believes there are better growth opportunities at reasonable prices among mid-cap and small-cap companies.