Argentina’s ‘lost decade’ – formal private employment still at 2016 levels

Argentina is grappling with a "lost decade" in terms of formal private employment. As of May 2025, there were approximately 6.13 million registered workers in private companies, nearly identical to the figure from July 2016. Over the past year, there has been a continuous decline in jobs, leaving Argentina with 241,000 fewer positions than in November 2023, despite economic activity remaining at the same level.

Official and private reports suggest that the decline in jobs is far from over, with hiring slowing and the number of workers in jobs without labor law protection increasing. A report by IIEP/UBA-CONICET on Employment, Distribution, and Labour Institutions quantifies this decline. In May 2025, private wage employment decreased by 9,100 jobs, marking a monthly decline of 0.1%, completing a full year of job losses.

Compared to November 2023, there has been a cumulative contraction of 3.8%, and a year-on-year comparison reveals that around 135,000 jobs have disappeared. The extent of stagnation becomes clearer when comparing with historical data. According to the HEP/UBA-CONICET report, there were around 6.132 million registered private-sector wage-earners in May 2025, close to the 6.169 million in July 2016 – a difference of 37,000 fewer jobs.

This level is 4.3% below the peak reached in August 2023. The current situation is described as "the lost decade." The Labour Department's official data show the same decline. In May 2025, registered private-sector jobs reached 6.107 million workers, 0.1% below the April figure. After a brief recovery between October and December 2024, job losses resumed in mid-2025.

Notably, job losses have occurred alongside a level of economic activity that is 4.9% higher than in November 2023. However, this increase in activity did not result in a corresponding recovery of formal jobs. The SIPA pension fund system data reveal that the decline in jobs is not evenly distributed across industries. In May 2025, eight sectors reduced their workforce.

Fisheries employment dropped by 2.9%, construction by 0.5%, trade and repairs by 0.3%, transport by 0.3%, and manufacturing industry by 0.3%. In the broader picture, private-sector employment fell by 2.2% year-on-year, equivalent to 137,500 fewer workers. Among the sectors, Trade, Industry, and Construction witnessed the steepest declines, with losses of 4,200, 3,200, and 2,000 jobs, respectively.

The HEP/UBA-CONICET report warns that these two sectors have been leading the contraction since September 2025. In the case of industry, the decline has been ongoing since September 2023, with around 90,000 jobs lost in the last 12 months. Construction, which initially showed signs of recovery, again experienced a dip in May 2025.

At 378,000 workers, it remains among the lowest levels in the series beginning in 2009, save for pandemic-related periods and the 2024-25 contraction. The construction sector has lost 93,000 jobs since May 2023, with 52,000 of these losses occurring within the past year. Following its peak in May 2023, the sector has shed a total of 93,000 jobs.

Despite no immediate signs of a turnaround, advance indicators from the EIL survey indicate that private-sector employment in companies with over 10 employees continued to decline in June 2025. The EIL survey revealed a further 0.1% decrease in registered jobs compared to the previous month, marking eight consecutive months of no growth.

This contraction amounts to 1.3% compared to mid-2025. Labour market movements have also grown less intense. Both hiring and firing rates dropped below the 12-month average, with the entry rate at 1.6% and the exit rate at 1.7%, resulting in a persistent negative gap for employment. Meanwhile, recruitment efforts have reached their lowest levels in the past year.

While companies have expressed cautious optimism, recent data indicate a significant loss of jobs. According to a report by CP Consultora, the crisis in registered private-sector employment has resulted in around 135,000 job losses, which account for 97% of the total decline between December 2023 and July 2024. Excluding construction, the consultants estimate that the current slump amounts to 127,000 jobs, compared to 70,000 in the previous period.

This crisis surpasses the one observed between 2018 and 2019. However, there are some promising signs for the near future. In June 2025, five percent of companies planned to increase their workforce, while only 1.9% intended to reduce it, leaving a net positive outlook of 1.3%. Construction and manufacturing industries are expected to offer the most favorable hiring prospects, while communal, social, and personal services continue to show negative trends.

Notably, the search for staff has dwindled to its lowest levels in the past year. The IAG institute, based on data from the EPH household survey, found that in the first quarter of 2025, 45.2% of the employed workforce was "unprotected," meaning they lacked the conditions of protection or stability defined in their methodology. Over the course of 2024-2026, a total of 626,000 jobs lost their protection, with 56,000 jobs considered protected disappearing, along with 212,000 in the public sector.

The IAG maintains that the job losses in both the public and formal private sectors have not been offset by gains in other sectors, linking this process to the expansion of precarious employment.