4년6개월째 ‘전시경제’ 러시아, 뱅크런 경고음…“진정한 종말에 근접”

For the past four and a half years, Russia's economic situation has deteriorated significantly. The country is currently engaged in war with Ukraine, and this has led to a significant outflow of corporate deposits to foreign banks, causing liquidity concerns at individual banks. The Russian economy is facing structural limitations, with many indicators pointing to a near-crisis situation.

The International Financial Center's report on Russia's banking system liquidity crisis revealed that despite high interest rates, family deposits have decreased by over half compared to the previous year. Corporate deposits have also decreased by 9% in July, down from 38 trillion rubles at the end of last year to 36.8 trillion rubles in July. Meanwhile, the amount of cash circulating in the public has surged, increasing by 12% from last year's 17.9 trillion rubles to 19.16 trillion rubles over the past seven months.

The government may freeze and nationalize private deposits to raise funds for the war effort, and recent rumors suggest that Putin could rapidly mobilize up to 30 trillion rubles from the deposit fund. In response, major banks and the Russian Financial Supervision Agency have limited cash withdrawals and extended the limit on foreign currency cash withdrawals for the rest of the year.

However, these measures have instead fueled public anxiety, leading to a rise in cash usage and a preference for keeping cash for emergencies. The Russian government has also blocked mobile internet payment networks nationwide in response to drone attacks on Ukraine, resulting in the discontinuation of card payments. This has increased the preference for cash usage and emergency cash hoarding among the general public.

According to the Cambridge University Economic Research Center, if the liquidity risk caused by withdrawal of deposits becomes widespread, the average liquidity requirement for Russia's banking system will increase from 3.2 trillion rubles in the last year to 5.2-7.2 trillion rubles by the end of this year. This could lead to a financial crisis in the banking sector if public distrust of the banking system spreads.

The Stockholms University Research Institute for Transition Economics and the German Institute for Economic Research have assessed that Russia's economy has reached structural limitations and is nearing a near-crisis point after four years of war.