Why Indian intelligence-gathering against China could lead to miscalculation
Routine Chinese activities are increasingly being framed as threats by Indian intelligence agencies, raising the risk of New Delhi miscalculating and taking “unilateral countermeasures” against Beijing, a Chinese academic has warned. India has stepped up intelligence-gathering as ties with neighbouring China turned sour in recent years, according to Zhao Ruoxi, a researcher with the Macau…
A Chinese academic has cautioned that India's heightened intelligence-gathering efforts against China could lead to miscalculations and aggressive actions. India has intensified its intelligence-gathering activities since 2020, following a border clash in the Galwan Valley that left 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead. Zhao Ruoxi, a researcher at Macau University of Science and Technology, analyzed India's intelligence operations on China in a paper published in July 2025 by the Shaanxi Institute of Science and Technology Information.
Since the 2020 clash, China's growing influence in South Asia, its focus on emerging technologies, and naval activities in the Indian Ocean have been under more scrutiny by India. India has expanded its intelligence-gathering methods, employing space-based reconnaissance, drones, and cyber intelligence. It has also collaborated with the United States and Middle Eastern countries to track Chinese naval operations and apply informational pressure on Beijing's maritime energy supply routes.
However, this heavy reliance on foreign data poses a "structural weakness," making India's assessments of China vulnerable to external strategic agendas. Although bilateral ties between Beijing and New Delhi improved in late 2024, India's intensified intelligence operations targeting China have persisted. Despite recent goodwill gestures like the reopening of border passes and resumption of direct flights, the Chinese academic warns that India's expanded surveillance of the border could force China to bolster its information security.
Additionally, Zhao predicts that Beijing's diplomatic efforts to strengthen ties with South Asian nations and promote Belt and Road Initiative projects could face "systemic disruption" from India. She believes that heightened Indian intelligence activities directed at China increase the risk of miscalculation, as routine Chinese actions are increasingly framed as threats.
To counter this pressure, Zhao advises China to improve its strategic messaging and communication with South Asian and Indian Ocean countries.
Written by urgent.news from South China Morning Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
