Wheat prices spike as Ukraine and Russia trade Black Sea blows
African nations are braced for further food price inflation as Ukraine and Russia exchange attacks on each other's Black Sea ports.
Significant disruption in the Black Sea, resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to a substantial rise in wheat prices, potentially impacting food security and prices across Africa. Wheat futures have surged around 35% since the beginning of 2026 and 20% within the last two months. As two of Africa's primary wheat suppliers, Russia and Ukraine together provided roughly 44% of the continent's imported wheat in 2024, with Russia being the largest exporter.
Since July, Russia and Ukraine have been exchanging attacks on each other's Black Sea ports, causing a decline in wheat supply and driving up prices. Russian wheat exports are at their lowest since 2010, while Ukraine's are at their lowest in 16 years. Odesa, Ukraine's main wheat export terminal, is experiencing near-zero activity, accounting for over 90% of its wheat exports in the first half of 2026.
Russia's terminals in the Azov and Black Sea, except one, are also shut down, typically handling over 80% of Russian wheat exports.
Andrey Sizov, CEO of agricultural markets research firm SovEcon, warns that these higher wheat prices will likely contribute to increased food prices in Africa. Importers will face not only a higher free on board (FOB) export price at the port of origin but also increased freight costs. Food inflation is already on the rise in many parts of Africa, with Nigeria experiencing over 20% inflation, Ethiopia over 15%, and Kenya at 9%.
Sizov suggests that Africa should prepare for even higher wheat prices in the coming months, as the current shock in supply is far greater than that witnessed at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022.
Written by urgent.news from Africa Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
