What a powerful El Niño could mean for UAE weather into 2027

Abu Dhabi: An intensifying El Niño phenomenon could lead to warmer-than-average winters, an earlier onset of the rainy season, and periods of heavier rainfall in the UAE through spring 2027, as per the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM). Dr. Mohammed Al Abri, head of the Meteorology Department at the NCM, revealed that studies indicate this year's El Niño may be unusually strong, with a 70% probability of becoming severe.

The UAE's effects are anticipated to become more apparent from autumn and persist through the 2026-27 winter, potentially extending until April. This doesn't imply continuous rain; rather, the NCM predicts intermittent, more intense weather events, including instances of heavy rainfall and an earlier-than-usual beginning of the country's wetter season.

Average temperatures are also expected to be higher. Al Abri mentioned that some temperature departures could reach over 2.7°C above normal, though a warmer seasonal average does not preclude short periods of cold weather lasting several days or even a week. It's essential to understand that seasonal forecasting depicts how conditions are likely to average out over weeks or months, not that every day will follow the same pattern.

A warmer overall winter can still contain sharp cold spells, just as a wetter season can include extended dry intervals.