일본 정부, 내년 수백조원 ‘재정 펑크' 우려…방위비 확대·감세 원인

The Japanese government is gearing up to launch a massive expansion of defense spending and a reduction in consumption tax in the coming year, raising concerns about a projected "budget crunch" of hundreds of billions of yen. The Nara Integrated Research Institute released its 2027 government budget review report on the 24th, projecting that the government's requested budget for next year will exceed 130 trillion yen, a 7.6 trillion yen increase from the previous year.

However, when considering both spending cuts and revenue declines, the potential worsening of fiscal balance could reach 23.7 trillion yen (205.8 trillion yen) compared to the previous year.

Economic and industrial plans anticipate significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor sectors, requesting 7.7 trillion yen (66.9 trillion yen) for these fields, which is more than double the budget of last year (3.693 trillion yen). The government also plans to increase defense spending to an unprecedented level of 8.9 trillion yen (77.3 trillion yen).

Other major contributors to the budget increase include the removal of tuition fees for high schools (187.6 billion yen), increased interest income from government bonds (5.3 trillion yen), social insurance-related expenses due to aging population (3.9 trillion yen), and a rise in local government tax funds (6.9 trillion yen).

The deadline for submitting budget requests from various ministries and agencies is at the end of this month. Finance Minister Gatta Yamada stated that there is no "ceiling" or limit on the budget, emphasizing his government's determination to achieve a "strong and prosperous Japan." However, a closer examination of the budget details reveals a glaring problem: excessive defense spending.

The Nara Integrated Research Institute forecasts that defense-related costs will increase by a whopping 4.2 trillion yen if the government raises its military spending to 2.2% of the country's GDP, as proposed in the "Security 3 Documents" recently revised by the government.