“부동산 쏠린 한국의 가계부채, ‘느린 붕괴’ 경로 들어설 가능성”

A prominent financial researcher warns of the potential for a slow collapse in South Korea's housing finance system, which could lead to increased financial instability and economic slowdown. Chairman Kim Yong-gi of the Financial Inclusion Research Alliance argues that while home loan mortgages may appear strong, there is a risk of "slow collapse" as the system shifts toward an over-reliance on housing debt.

This slow collapse could be triggered by rising interest rates, stagnant incomes, and housing price adjustments, ultimately leading to increased financial burdens for households and potentially impacting the entire financial sector. The warning comes amid concerns over the rising proportion of non-bank household debts, which have increased from 2.08% in the fourth quarter of last year to 2.26% in the first quarter of this year.

The researcher emphasizes that the impact of the slowdown would be felt first by households aged 30-40, who are likely to adjust spending, cut back on savings, and convert financial assets to move away from bank-backed debt. The findings suggest that while the proportion of housing debt in GDP has decreased, the real economic impact on households and the broader economy could be more significant than the figures indicate.