Shipping giant loses $600 million in three months due to Middle East conflict

In May and June, while tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz and a fifth of the world's traded oil sought alternative routes, Kapa Research surveyed 314 shipowners and C-suite executives from leading shipping firms. The results indicated a level of confidence exceeding expectations, with 94% expressing optimism about their companies' futures. The Global Shipping Outlook 2026, a quantitative study by Kapa Research, surveyed leadership from regions worldwide, from Europe to Asia.

Conflict in Ukraine, the Red Sea, and the Middle East topped the list of shipping leaders' most serious concerns, cited by 76% of respondents. However, 40% of the industry's leaders saw new opportunities in the Hormuz crisis, while only 23% identified significant obstacles. Nearly half of the respondents viewed turmoil as beneficial for business, driven by the fact that conflicts push ships to longer routes, increasing vessel supply and freight rates.

Despite the optimism, a 54% to 46% split emerged when asked whether global shipping today desires peace or thrives on turmoil. The study aimed to explore the relationship between the shipping industry and geopolitical crises, revealing a pragmatic outlook. Conflict pushes ships to longer routes, increasing vessel supply and freight rates, while demand for goods remains strong. Shipping moves against the cycle, often resulting in revenue growth during instability.

The study found that 76% of respondents expect the effects of the Hormuz crisis on global shipping to outlast six months. Moreover, 69% rated China as the leading shipbuilding nation, 62% saw China as operating the most competitive fleet, and an overwhelming 96% acknowledged China's critical role in strengthening global shipping. However, trust in Chinese ship management remained relatively low at 17%.

In terms of leadership, Xi Jinping of China topped the list with a net favorability rating of +44, compared to Narendra Modi of India with a rating of +24. The bottom of the ranking featured leaders involved in today's wars and conflicts. The technology section of the study highlighted the growing importance of AI and digital solutions in the shipping industry, with 65% of companies already using or piloting AI, and 7% using it extensively.

Scale, data, and teams are key factors driving the adoption of AI, particularly in larger fleets. Despite the industry's reliance on skilled personnel, a shortage of such personnel was ranked as the third most serious problem by respondents.