One Nation is targeting a WA seat in Labor heartland. It could be a defining moment for Australian politics | Narelle Miragliotta for the Conversation

The Western Australian state seat of Secret Harbour is set to hold a byelection on August 29, following the resignation of Labor government minister Paul Papalia. The seat has been Labor heartland since 2007, with the party's two-party preferred vote averaging around 60%. However, the area is experiencing high levels of mortgage and rental stress, which One Nation polls well in.

According to election analyst William Bowe, the seat's demographic profile, including low ethnic diversity and a high number of trades workers, makes it promising territory for One Nation. This is supported by a 28.5% swing against Labor's primary vote at the 2025 state election. Premier Roger Cook has conceded that it is "absolutely" possible the party may not retain the seat.

The byelection has gained national attention due to the recent changes in the Australian political landscape. The outcome could be significant, with some suggesting it has the potential for an electoral upset, given the characteristics conducive to a One Nation win, according to The Guardian Australia.

Brief written by urgent.news from The Guardian Australia, The Conversation AU — 2 reports on this story. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.