Norway Warns Oil and Gas Output Could Collapse After 2030

Norway's petroleum production is rising faster than new reserves are being discovered, potentially leading to a sharp decline after 2030, according to a recent report from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. Despite recent peaks in output and substantial investment, the report highlights that most current spending is on mature projects rather than new discoveries.

To sustain production beyond the next decade, the country will need increased exploration, faster development of existing fields, and ongoing investment in infrastructure. The issue isn't depletion but insufficiently mature remaining resources to replace declining output from the largest fields. The Norwegian Offshore Directorate projects production to remain stable until the end of the 2020s before declining, reaching around 160 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent by 2035, equivalent to approximately 2.76 million barrels of oil per day.

Three scenarios through 2050 - High, Low, and Medium - illustrate potential outcomes based on varying levels of exploration, investment, and technological progress. The High scenario predicts production at about 65% of current levels by 2050, the Low scenario at 5%, with a $344 billion net-present-value gap between them. Norway still possesses about 44 billion barrels of oil equivalent, but much of it remains undiscovered, posing significant uncertainty.

While exploration has yielded enormous returns, recent drilling efforts have been concentrated near existing fields, leading to smaller discoveries with limited resource growth. To sustain production beyond 2030, the focus must shift toward unexplored areas, despite the higher geological risks and capital requirements involved.