Interview Geldanlage: „Diese Ignoranz ist üblich im Vorfeld jeder Finanzkrise“

Mr. Felsenheimer, despite stock indices remaining close to their all-time highs, warnings from the head of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund seem to fall on deaf ears. Is this surprising to you, given your experience as a crisis manager in fund management? Some might call it resilience, while others might describe it as ignorance.

And it's a harsh reality, but this ignorance is common in the lead-up to any financial crisis. We've seen it before in 2006, in 1999, and even during the Corona crisis, which was unprecedented. My impression is that the system is extremely fragile. Corporate bond yields are rising, and yet, stock prices continue to climb. The bond market signals distrust, while the stock market conveys hope.

This is not a new phenomenon. Before major stress phases, we often observe divergences: one segment is optimistic about risk, while another is advocating for "business as usual." Prior to the 2006/2007 financial crisis, risk premiums on corporate and bank bonds increased. Today, bond markets signal a different future than stock investors.

The stock market is driven by a reflex to capture the last 10% price rise, and with ETFs, there are regular contributions from pension plans. This doesn't express any specific opinion on individual stocks; it's an automatic process with little risk aversion, until the market collapses.