Here are two trades to make ahead of a critical week for markets as Nvidia results and Jackson Hole loom.

Gold's rally continues as the market anticipates US PCE data and the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The XAU/USD pair is trading around $4,644, up almost 0.90% on the day, reaching levels last seen on May 15. The Treasury's decision to expand its long-end buyback program has bolstered gold, as it benefits from a weaker US dollar and growing safe-haven demand amid fiscal policy concerns.

However, elevated long-term US Treasury yields, which are close to a 19-year high, could potentially curb gold's upward momentum. The 30-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.24%, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up about 0.13% on the day, having fallen to a three-month low following the Treasury's buyback announcement.

Looking ahead, market focus will shift to the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is set to be released on Wednesday. This data will provide insights into the potential trajectory of inflation and help determine whether the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates steady at its September meeting. Currently, the probability of a rate hike stands at around 38% on the CME FedWatch Tool.

Technical analysis indicates a bullish near-term outlook for gold, with the price holding above the 200-day and 100-day simple moving averages. The metal is in an uptrend supported by a moderately firm Average Directional Index and a Relative Strength Index in overbought territory. However, resistance levels exist at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,685 and the 100.0% retracement at $4,886. Support can be found at the 61.8% retracement at $4,528 and the 200-day SMA at $4,516.

Historically, gold has been a store of value and medium of exchange, with central banks serving as its largest holders. In 2022, central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold, marking the highest yearly purchase since records began. As a safe-haven asset, gold's price is often inversely correlated with the US Dollar and risk assets, while it benefits from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates. Geopolitical tensions, such as the upcoming sanctions on Iran, can also drive gold prices higher.