Australia, NZ dollars hold near multi-month highs, resistance looms large

Sydney reports that the Australian and New Zealand dollars reached near 2-1/2-month highs on Monday, buoyed by the US greenback's financial troubles. However, both currencies are nearing significant chart levels that could challenge the upward trend. The Australian dollar remained stable at $0.7165, up 0.8% from Friday, marking its eighth consecutive weekly gain since 2020.

The next hurdle for the AUD/USD pair is at $0.7278. The New Zealand dollar, meanwhile, was flat at $0.5975 after a 0.6% rise on Friday, with a key barrier at the double top of $0.5993. Market attention is on US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's actions following his failed effort to stabilize longer-dated Treasury yields. Currency strategist Joseph Capurso from Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts the AUD/USD could edge above 0.72 due to a weaker US dollar, but a year-to-date high above 0.7278 remains improbable.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes from its August policy meeting, where the board maintained its key interest rate at 4.35% for the second time in a row despite three rate hikes this year. Officials have hinted that a hike could be on the horizon if inflation concerns materialize. On Wednesday, economists from Reuters forecasted a 0.8% rise in July's consumer prices, but annual inflation may have slowed to 3.2% from 3.8% due to a base effect.

In New Zealand, retail sales fell 0.5% in the second quarter due to increased energy prices, causing the largest quarterly drop in fuel sales. Swaps indicate a 90% chance of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy rate increase to 2.75% next week, driven by the bank's repeated calls for less stimulative policy. The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the next rate hike remains, with market participants divided on the likelihood of a third hike in October.