Airstrikes on Civilians in Rakhine Will Increase, Say Myanmar Military Defectors

Two former Myanmar military officers have warned that airstrikes on civilians in the Rakhine State will increase in the coming months. Major Myint Zaw Than and Sergeant Kyaw Han Toe, interviewed in Myanmar's Arakan region on February 25, said the military will intensify its air raids due to its efforts to defend the three townships under its control.

Despite this, Kyaw Han Toe predicted that the military will eventually be defeated by the Arakan Army, which currently controls the largest expanse of territory among ethnic armed organizations. The Arakan Army's strength lies in the support of the local population and its series of victories against the military over the past decade.

According to a United Nations Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar report, aerial attacks have been on the rise since the elections, with the military increasingly using motorized paragliders, gyrocopters, and drones for low-altitude airstrikes with unguided explosives. From January to August 13, an estimated 228 civilians were killed or injured as a result of airstrikes in Rakhine State.

The resistance movement in other regions of Myanmar is expected to emerge victorious if the groups can work together, according to Kyaw Han Toe, who believes the junta will collapse within three years. However, the lack of coordination among the resistance groups has been a significant drawback, especially in zones where the military has regained control.

Former military personnel have also alleged the existence of a small section involved in drug trafficking.