A brief history of the RB1 in fantasy football scoring and the dreaded curse that follows the player year-to-year
It's been a tough run for the RB1 in fantasy football the season after their top performance. More from Joel Smyth.
The RB1 is an esteemed position in fantasy football. Joel Smyth discusses the curse that befalls former RB1s from the year prior, the significance of the top No. 1 player in winning leagues, and their projected performance in 2026. The RB1 Curse has seen former top RBs struggle in the following season due to injuries or declines.
The RB1 Curse has persisted in seven of the past nine seasons, excluding Alvin Kamara, who still saw a drop in production. A look at the past seven seasons of RB1s in Full-PPR formats reveals their performance in the following season and the difference in points per game. Christian McCaffrey, the third player on this list, has faced season-ending injuries, making his selection a risky one.
Despite this, the top rookie backs almost always outperform the former RB1, with nine of the 11 seasons since 2015 showing this trend. Drafting the RB1 can significantly increase your chances of winning, with McCaffrey providing a 25.7% chance of winning last season, compared to an average 8% in a 12-team league. The value gap between the RB1 and the RB12 is substantial, with RB1s being more valuable than the latter in nine of ten seasons.
The probability of finding an RB1 after Round 2 is slim, with only three selections since 2005. With only 12 RBs having historically had the best odds, analysts believe Gibbs has the best odds to be the best overall RB1. Among later RB picks, James Cook II, Kenneth Walker III, and Omarion Hampton are considered strong candidates, with Cook II showing the most potential to replicate his career year.
Written by urgent.news from Yahoo Sports's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
