Word’s Eye View: What Vijay Gokhale’s China’s Wars Reveals About Beijing’s Strategy

Strategic experts often ponder, "The Catholic Church contemplates centuries; Communist China weighs decades." This adage, encapsulated in a new book by former Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale, "China’s Wars: The Politics and Diplomacy Behind Its Military Coercion," delves into the motivations behind the People’s Republic of China’s military actions.

Drawing from his extensive 39-year career in the Indian Foreign Service, including ambassadorship to China, Gokhale examines four of China’s conflicts, revealing the deeper geopolitical and domestic factors that led to military coercion.

Beginning with the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis, Gokhale argues the confrontation wasn’t primarily about mainland invasion by Chiang Kai-shek's forces but rather a test of American security commitments, an assessment of Soviet support, and a means to galvanise domestic support. Next, the 1962 Sino-Indian War is dissected as an offensive designed to politically humiliate India, assert dominance in the Himalayas, and bolster China’s standing on the global stage.

The 1969 Sino-Soviet Border Clashes are viewed as a strategic signal to the United States, demonstrating China’s shift away from the USSR and paving the way for reconciliation with the West. Lastly, the 1979 invasion of Vietnam is presented as a bold move to cement geopolitical alliances with the West, emphasizing Deng Xiaoping’s shift towards regional deterrence rather than battlefield parity.

Interestingly, the book notes that since 1979, China has largely avoided direct warfare but has instead employed subtle strategies in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait incursions, and prolonged standoffs along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. These actions, collectively termed "salami-slicing," aim to reshape realities without engaging in full-scale conflict.

Gokhale emphasizes that to counter this, adversaries must acknowledge the multi-dimensional nature of Chinese military actions, which are deeply intertwined with economic influence, psychological operations, and narrative warfare.

However, the book faces a significant omission—there is no detailed analysis of China’s participation in the Korean War (1950-1953), the longest conflict China fought since its founding. Given the substantial troop losses estimated between 118,000 and 400,000, the lack of insight into this decision-making process is a glaring gap.

For Indian strategic actors, Gokhale offers a set of pragmatic recommendations. He urges defence planners and diplomats to view border tensions not merely as isolated incidents but as part of a larger strategic calculus. Deterring China demands the development of asymmetric counter-coercion capabilities, the establishment of clear red lines, a focus on understanding China’s internal political dynamics, and the strengthening of alliances across the Indo-Pacific.

"China’s Wars" provides a comprehensive view of China’s strategy, offering valuable insights for policymakers navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of the modern era.