Women want ‘dads,’ not ‘duds’: A Nobel-winning historian has a theory for falling birthrates, but the economics aren’t so straightforward

A Nobel-winning historian named Claudia Goldin suggests that highly educated, hardworking women may be less likely to have children if their partners do not share the responsibilities of raising them. Goldin argues that if men can demonstrate that they will be dependable "dads," women will be more likely to invest in their education and careers, leading to a higher birthrate.

Despite efforts to reduce the gap in household work, birthrates continue to decline. Some critics question the data used and what "dependability" means for fathers. Goldin, however, points to anecdotal evidence of good dads who share responsibilities in relationships. Birthrates have been falling for decades, even as women have increased their education levels.

The historical need for children has shifted from the household level to the societal level as agriculture becomes less important and infant mortality rates decrease. Public policies have not kept up with changing cultural norms, making it easier to change policies than cultural expectations.