When Better Numbers Meet Emptier Pockets

The Nigerian government boasts improved macroeconomic indicators, such as stronger reserves, slower inflation, increased revenues, and a more orderly foreign exchange market since implementing reforms three years ago. However, millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with daily survival due to overwhelming expenses on food, fuel, and other living costs. This disconnect between macroeconomic recovery and the lived experience of households presents the greatest economic and political challenge for President Bola Tinubu.

Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele claims that reforms generated N20.4 trillion in incremental federal resources between June 2023 and December 2025. These savings include N15.8 trillion from subsidy reforms, which the government claims was draining the country's finances, and N10.4 trillion transferred to states and local governments.

The government dismantled petrol subsidies, unified the foreign exchange market, and reduced the premium between official and parallel markets from over 60% to less than 5%. Gross reserves rose from $35 billion to $52.5 billion, while net reserves increased from $3 billion to $34.8 billion. Real GDP growth strengthened from 2.31% to 3.89%, and 27 states no longer faced salary payment difficulties.

Despite these improvements, Nigerians remain dissatisfied. The government admits the policy changes have been challenging, with petrol prices rising to N1,100-1,400 per litre, the Monetary Policy Rate increasing from 18.5% to 26.5%, and inflation remaining high at 15.91% and food inflation at 17.52%. Household incomes have not kept pace with inflation, leaving many poorer due to the naira's depreciation.

Small businesses face additional challenges from higher electricity tariffs, transport costs, interest rates, and imported input prices.

The hardship is evident in fuel costs, with the average retail price of petrol at N1,596.25 per litre in May 2026, compared to N1,027.76 a year earlier. Food prices have also risen, with the cost of preparing jollof rice more than doubling since Tinubu took office. The financial strain is reflected in the experiences of individuals like Grace Adama, an Abuja health-sector worker who earns N135,000 monthly.

She says her salary barely lasts one week, has moved to cheaper accommodation, reduced her meat consumption, and resorted to short-term borrowing to cover bills.

While the government argues that without reform, Nigeria could have faced even worse consequences, such as a widening parallel-market premium, deeper foreign-exchange scarcity, and states unable to pay salaries, the reforms' political impact is limited. Nigerian citizens judge governments based on their immediate experiences, not hypothetical situations that did not occur.

The administration's argument that Nigerians would be worse off without reforms may not resonate with families spending most of their income on basic necessities. Moreover, the additional fiscal resources generated by reforms are being absorbed by wage adjustments, debt servicing, and infrastructure rather than increasing disposable household income.

The government's social protection programs have struggled to address the scale of the economic shock. Reports indicate that 9.2 million households have been enrolled in relevant programs. Overall, the paradox remains: while Nigeria's economy shows signs of recovery, the improved financial situation does not translate into a noticeable improvement in the daily lives of the majority of Nigerians.