Ukraine and Iran Wars Expose the Flaws in Nuclear Deterrence | Opinion
Kyiv and Tehran's attacks on their nuclear-armed opponents have yet again shown that deterrence is a failure.
Recent events in Ukraine and Iran have highlighted the shortcomings of nuclear deterrence as a means of ensuring global security. Ukraine's successful large-scale drone attacks and long-range missile strikes on Russian targets, including nuclear bombers and early warning systems, have demonstrated that the country is not being deterred by Russia's nuclear arsenal.
Even some policy experts who once believed in deterrence are now questioning its effectiveness. In a recent essay in Foreign Affairs, former U.S. and NATO official Rose Gottemoeller argued that deterrence is not working, citing historical examples such as the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the 1982 Falklands/Malvinas Islands conflict, and the Vietnam War, where nuclear-armed nations did not deter conventional attacks.
The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, often cited as a moment when deterrence worked, was actually a case of sheer luck, according to former U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson. Iran's retaliatory strikes against Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf States and Jordan, as well as its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, further illustrate the failure of deterrence doctrine.
While nuclear-armed countries may feel emboldened to act aggressively and violate international law, the reality is that nuclear weapons have consistently failed to deter aggression. The U.S. government is reportedly considering increasing the role of tactical nuclear weapons in deterrence, while European and East Asian governments are also exploring ways to enhance nuclear deterrence.
However, these actions would be misguided. Instead, the international community should reject the notion of deterrence and work towards the elimination of nuclear weapons through a verifiable and fair pathway, as outlined in the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). This treaty, signed by 100 countries, emphasizes humanitarian concerns and calls out deterrence doctrine as a threat to global stability.
By embracing multilateral dialogue and diplomacy, countries can work together to prevent a world where nuclear weapons lead to mass destruction and the destruction of humanity itself.
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