BOK expected to raise S. Korea's 2026 growth estimate to over 3 pct: experts
SEOUL, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to raise its grow...
South Korean economic experts anticipate the Bank of Korea (BOK) will raise its growth estimate for the country in 2026 to over 3 percent, according to a recent Yonhap News Agency survey. This optimistic projection is attributed to stronger-than-expected semiconductor exports, revived domestic demand, and increased government spending fueled by higher tax revenues.
According to Ahn Jae-kyun, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co., the BOK might revise its 2026 growth outlook from the current 2.6 percent to as high as 3.4 percent. Other experts echoed this sentiment, with estimates ranging from 3.1 to 3.2 percent, with Nomura Securities projecting a higher 3.4 percent annual growth.
An economist at Nomura Securities, Park Jeong-woo, expects the central bank to significantly increase its growth forecasts for the current and following years, considering the semiconductor boom and the expansionary fiscal policy. Most experts remain bullish on the semiconductor supercycle, driven by a global supply and demand mismatch in the market, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
However, some caution that the supercycle may peak sooner than anticipated, as chip exports have already declined from August levels.
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