Analysis-China’s property crisis grinds on after Evergrande sentencing

China's property market, once a symbol of the country's economic boom, continues to struggle in its sixth year of decline, affecting a wide range of households and posing challenges for the world's second-largest economy. Founding father of China Evergrande, Hui Ka Yan, was recently sentenced to life in prison, but the punishment seems insufficient for many, who question why he wasn't given the death penalty for crimes ranging from misusing funds to bribery.

The sector's woes are evident in stagnant new home prices, declining land sales, and increasing delinquencies in property sales and construction. Smaller, inland cities have seen a nearly 25% drop in second-hand home prices since 2020, dampening consumption. China's GDP grew just 4.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the slowest pace in over three years, highlighting the housing slump's impact.

The overproduction of housing, with more than a third of the population owning second homes, has exacerbated the problem. Even as the government redirects credit and support away from real estate to focus on strategic tech industries, the sector's decline persists, with many private developers defaulting and state-owned enterprises taking over.

With an estimated 18 months to clear the home inventory and prices needing to fall by another 40% to reach equilibrium, the situation is expected to continue grinding until a significant market correction occurs.