Why China may have little to lose as ‘weakened’ Trump seeks North Korea talks

China may gain little from potential talks between the United States and North Korea, as weakened President Donald Trump seeks to reshape the security landscape, according to analysts. Trump has already reduced the scale of joint military exercises between the US and South Korea, criticizing them as costly and sending hostile signals to Pyongyang.

North Korea is seen as "unthreatening and respectful," while the South Korean defense ministry canceled related counter-attack exercises. Trump has also expressed interest in meeting Kim Jong-un, stating that North Korea possesses 57 "very powerful" nuclear weapons. Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's sister, dismissed the scaling back of the military exercises as "not even worth evaluating."

The reduced US-Korea military exercises have given North Korea political and economic cover, weakening the impact of sanctions. China's backing off calls for denuclearisation has further bolstered North Korea's position. China's perspective is to ensure a mechanism for consultation in talks, while maintaining a strategic image of coordination with North Korea.

Professor Lim Eul-chul notes that Pyongyang is keenly aware of Trump's need for a diplomatic breakthrough due to ongoing war with Iran and domestic pressure. North Korea may adopt a "wait-and-see" approach.

Trump's focus will shift from denuclearisation to limiting the growth of North Korea's weapons programme. The US now emphasizes less on denuclearisation and more on containing North Korea's nuclear programme. China's Xi Jinping visited North Korea in June, promising to enhance exchanges in diplomacy, law enforcement, and military affairs, but excluding denuclearisation from the joint statement.

From Trump's perspective, a rapprochement with Pyongyang could lead to trade-offs, such as suspending joint military exercises or reducing the number of troops in South Korea for a moratorium on intercontinental-range ballistic missile tests.