The Gas Turbine Shortage Just Became AI’s Biggest Constraint
The shortage of gas turbines has become AI's biggest constraint. Heavy-duty gas turbines from GE Vernova will not arrive until 2031, according to their production schedule. U.S. data center power demand is expected to grow significantly, from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 66 gigawatts in 2027. This growth will consume a substantial portion of the total U.S. peak summer demand.
However, the equipment needed to meet this demand is in high demand and has extended lead times. The Big Three, including GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, have significant backlogs of gas turbine orders, with delivery expected to take several years. The global manufacturing capacity is estimated to be between 60 and 70 gigawatts per year, while the order books exceed 110 gigawatts.
The demand for gas turbines for AI data centers far exceeds what the industry can realistically deliver within a year. The supply chain for these turbines is also limited, with specialized foundries and skilled workers being in short supply. This shortage is causing turbine prices to nearly double, with the average combined-cycle project costing over $2,000 per kilowatt.
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