Rice Shortages Drive Japan’s Food Self-Sufficiency to Record Low

Japan's food self-sufficiency ratio, based on calorie consumption for the fiscal year 2025 (April 2025 to March 2026), has hit a record low of 37.11%, according to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. This figure is lower than the previous record of 37.15% recorded in fiscal year 2020. The main contributors to this decline were shortages of domestic rice, which led to higher prices and reduced consumption of local crops, driving up imports such as California-grown rice typically found in major supermarkets.

The Japanese government aims to reach a calorie-based food self-sufficiency target of 45% by fiscal year 2030, but with ongoing rice shortages, this goal appears increasingly distant. However, Japan's self-sufficiency ratio based on production value has seen a 2-point increase, reaching 66%. This improvement is attributed to higher prices for domestic rice.

The self-sufficiency rate is calculated by excluding livestock products that are fed with imported feed, providing a measure of true domestic output. Conversely, the domestic production rate does not account for feed self-sufficiency, treating all livestock within Japan as domestic.

Japan's reliance on foreign sources for certain aspects of its food supply is evident in the discrepancy between the calorie-based and production value-based self-sufficiency rates. Apart from domestic production, Japan's per capita daily calorie intake is largely dependent on imports from the United States, Canada, and Australia.

On a production value basis, Japan, the United States, China, and Australia together account for 82% of the total. Countries like Canada and Australia, with smaller populations and high production of grains and oilseeds, boast self-sufficiency rates well above 100%. Italy, known for exporting high-priced vegetables and fruits, also demonstrates a strong self-sufficiency rate on a production value basis.

Despite these figures, Japan's self-sufficiency rate for both calories and production value remains substantially lower than that of many other nations.