Kazakhstan's future after the elections: Russia, EU or China
Kazakhstan, where power is being continuously consolidated in the president's hands, will have to continue its tough balancing act between the EU, Russia and China following the parliamentary elections this Sunday.
On August 23, Kazakhstan will hold parliamentary elections, transforming its legislature from a two-chamber to a single-chamber system. Citizens will elect 145 members of parliament through party lists, with all seven registered parties eligible to participate. Experts agree that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's ruling party, Adilet, is the only party likely to secure victory.
The new parliament is expected to function similarly to the previous one, representing the regime's interests rather than offering genuine opposition. Stefan Meister, a leading expert in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, predicts that the ruling party will win the election, a view echoed by Luca Anceschi, a professor of Eurasian studies.
The new constitution enables Tokayev to run for another seven-year presidential term in 2029 and replace the two-chamber parliament with a single-chamber assembly called the Kurultai. This constitutional change alters not only the structure but also the scope of the parliament's powers, autonomy, and oversight of the executive branch. Independent candidates are no longer eligible to run in the current electoral system, further limiting voters' political choices.
The election will be held exclusively based on party lists, with no political opposition and limited party competition. Consequently, genuine political choice remains extremely narrow. Meister and Anceschi suggest that European Union members and the European Commission are unlikely to respond to the erosion of political freedoms in Kazakhstan. In the wake of the Ukraine war, the EU has adopted a more pragmatic stance towards Central Asian states, focusing on trade and resource development.
While Kazakhstan remains the least repressive authoritarian country in the region, civil society space is steadily narrowing. Kazakhstan has become a significant oil exporter to the EU, accounting for 12.8% of its crude oil imports in 2025, surpassing only the United States. However, the country has carefully maintained neutrality in the Russia-Europe conflict, avoiding both the EU sanctions and their participation. This strategic positioning can be seen as a means of preserving internal stability.
Written by urgent.news from DW English (Top Stories)'s reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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