Is an Israel-Syria pincer attack on Lebanon in the works?

Recent discussions surrounding US President Donald Trump's proposal for the Syrian army to potentially play a role in disarming Hezbollah in Lebanon have sparked intrigue among historians and political observers. The suggestion has brought to mind the events of 1976, when Syrian soldiers and tanks entered Lebanon, marking the beginning of a period known as the pincer movement.

This strategic approach saw Israel and Syria encircling Lebanon from the south and north respectively, leading to significant consequences for the region.

While the current political and military landscape in the Middle East is vastly different from that of the 1970s, analysts speculate that some mechanisms of the historical pincer strategy may be adapted to address the challenges posed by Hezbollah. However, the likelihood of a literal replay of the 1976-1978 events is deemed unlikely due to the significant changes in regional conditions over time.

Despite these differences, one key aspect that remains relevant is the relationship between Syria and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). In the 1970s, Syria and the PLO had a complex relationship, sometimes cooperating and at other times clashing. The Syrian invasion of Lebanon in 1976 resulted in a battle for the Palestinian refugee camp of Tel al-Zaatar, which ultimately fell to the Syrian forces.

This event highlighted the fragility of the PLO's position in Lebanon and the increasingly significant role played by Syria in managing the country's internal dynamics.