Data Show How Congo's Ebola Outbreak Is on Track to Surpass History's Largest

The Ebola outbreak in Congo is currently on track to surpass the deadliest outbreak in recorded history, which claimed over 11,000 lives in West Africa between 2014 and 2016, according to data from authorities and the World Health Organization. The ongoing outbreak in Congo's eastern region has already recorded 2,516 deaths out of 5,290 confirmed cases, making it the fastest Ebola outbreak in history.

This rapid spread is attributed to an intensely mobile population, including displaced individuals from armed conflicts, and a lack of trust in medical authorities.

As of now, only 30% to 40% of cases have been detected, with less than 10% of cases stemming from known contacts. This is significantly lower than the typical 90-95% rate when an outbreak can be considered under control. The outbreak began spreading from the mining town of Mongbwalu as early as February, months before the official declaration on May 15.

Contact tracing efforts have been limited, with only 16% of expected contacts being traced, despite an average of 60 contacts per confirmed case. Experts believe the outbreak may have started spreading from Mongbwalu as early as February, indicating a delay in outbreak detection.

The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, which has no approved vaccines or treatments. Its milder symptoms may lead to a lack of immediate reporting and seek of medical attention. In a previously unaffected province, Bas-Uele, two cases have been reported in the past week, highlighting the outbreak's rapid expansion to previously unaffected areas.

Most deaths are occurring outside Ebola treatment centers, accounting for 97% of reported deaths. However, only 20% of health alerts are coming from the community, indicating a need for increased community engagement in outbreak response. Despite the high overall case fatality rate of 46.7%, some regions, such as North Kivu, have much higher fatality rates, reaching 68.2%.