Chartbook 468 “Apocalypse Now” in the Treasury Market? March 2020 as seen from August 2026.

In August 2026, commentators are reflecting on the bond market turmoil that occurred in March 2020, following the emergence of COVID-19. Long-term yields have been climbing globally, with the US Treasury engaging in significant intervention, and the dollar weakening. This current situation has global implications, given the sheer size of the US Treasury market.

The worry is that a large-scale sell-off in Treasuries could result in the collapse of this critical financial institution. This scenario was already witnessed during the early stages of the pandemic crisis in March 2020, when investor panic led to mass selling not only of equities and supposedly safe corporate bonds, but also of US Treasuries. Market participants were desperately seeking safe havens, but found none, leaving the Treasury market exposed and vulnerable.

While this event is often overshadowed by other crises, it remains one of the most underappreciated shocks in modern financial history. As the parallels between the two periods become increasingly evident, it is essential to recognize the potential dangers of a similar crisis unfolding again. Failure to learn from the past may put the global economy at risk once more.