Atlantic climate variability enables the prediction of leishmaniasis outbreaks in North Africa
Climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean can help predict cutaneous leishmaniasis outbreaks in North Africa several months in advance. This is the finding of a new study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), together with researchers from the Pasteur Institutes of Tunisia, Morocco and France.
Climate patterns in the Atlantic Ocean can help forecast cutaneous leishmaniasis outbreaks in North Africa up to a year in advance. A new study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and researchers from Tunisia, Morocco, and France reveals that specific climate patterns impact the transmission of this parasitic disease.
Cutaneous leishmaniasis, caused by sand flies and resulting in skin lesions and ulcers, affects around one million people globally each year. Traditionally, climate-based early warning systems have been developed for tropical regions, but this study demonstrates that Atlantic climate variability can also be harnessed in temperate regions.
By incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability into a model, researchers were able to predict rainfall patterns and, consequently, leishmaniasis outbreaks in Morocco and Tunisia with up to a 12-month lead time. This breakthrough offers valuable time for implementing preventive measures, potentially benefiting other rainfall-modulated diseases in the region.
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