America’s murder rate hasn’t been this low in 70 years

For much of the past decade, Baltimore has been plagued by a staggering number of homicides, with over 300 per year. In July 2015 alone, 45 people were killed in a single month, a shocking figure for a city of only around 600,000 residents. However, by the end of 2025, the city recorded only 133 homicides, marking the fewest since 1977 and about 60% fewer than in 2020. This dramatic decline in crime has been attributed to a three-pronged approach in Baltimore.

First, Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott's Group Violence Reduction Strategy focuses on identifying and targeting the individuals most likely to engage in or suffer from violence. Through housing and job training programs, these individuals are made aware of their status on the city's radar and offered support to reduce their involvement in criminal activity. Additionally, the Safe Streets program utilizes outreach workers who build trust among community members and intervene in disputes before they escalate into shootings.

Second, a tougher stance on crime has been enforced in Baltimore. The state's attorney's office secured 2,129 convictions since 2023, primarily in gun-related violent crimes, with over 1,700 defendants incarcerated. Moreover, the homicide clearance rate reached 60% by mid-2026, with a nonfatal-shooting clearance rate of 54%, a significant improvement from the previous year. These measures aim to deter potential criminals through increased apprehension, rather than solely focusing on the severity of punishments.

Finally, Baltimore's success in reducing crime can be traced back to a unique approach popularized by Dr. Gary Slutkin. Drawing from his experience in fighting infectious diseases, Slutkin adapted a harm reduction strategy to combat violence. By identifying and targeting the individuals most likely to transmit violence, Slutkin reasoned that by interrupting transmission and changing the conditions that allow it to spread, the overall rate of violence could be reduced.

In Baltimore, this approach was initially implemented in the Western District, with the remaining city serving as a comparison.

Researchers measured the Western District against other Baltimore neighborhoods and found that shootings there were approximately 30% lower. Notably, the police force made no more arrests than before, suggesting that the decrease in shootings was not solely due to an increase in police presence. Furthermore, when Baltimore's murder rate was compared to that of other major American cities, it was found to be about 25% below the national average, indicating the effectiveness of Baltimore's unique approach to combating violence.