Africa: Population Density - a Missing Factor in Development - - and Why This Is Africa's Moment

Explanations of why Africa has fallen behind often point to familiar culprits: weak governance, corruption, ethnic strife, and the arbitrary borders imposed by colonial powers. Joe Studwell's book, How Africa Works, suggests that a more fundamental constraint has been the continent's historical scarcity of people in strategic locations.

This single-factor thesis, while debatable, offers a fresh perspective that investors and entrepreneurs should consider, as it alters expectations for the continent's future growth trajectory. Studwell begins by noting that sub-Saharan Africa has long maintained low population density. In 1975, the region's population density mirrored that of Europe during the 16th century.

Factors such as malaria, the tsetse fly, and a lack of draft animals contributed to this demographic constraint, while agricultural practices remained largely nomadic due to the absence of beneficial natural fertilizers and thin, inhospitable soils. These conditions exacerbated the situation. Few people meant scarce cities; as recent as 1950, Africa south of the Sahara boasted only one city with a million inhabitants - Johannesburg.

Colonial administrations, often operating with limited resources, contributed little in terms of infrastructure, educational institutions, or cohesive national identity, resulting in fragmented states marked by ethnic divisions. However, the pace of demographic change has accelerated dramatically. Sub-Saharan Africa is now the world's fastest-growing region, adding approximately 300 million people every decade and projected to reach nearly 2.2 billion by 2050, accounting for roughly one in five individuals globally.

Studwell emphasizes that density is crucial because it fosters market development, makes infrastructure more affordable, and facilitates specialization and industrialization. Cities act as hubs for these effects, explaining why urbanization and industrialization have historically progressed hand-in-hand worldwide. Africa's urban population, already exceeding 500 million, is expected to double within the next two and a half decades, a pace unmatched in history.

This shift to urban centers, occurring in a relatively short timeframe, brings with it both opportunities and challenges. While density can stimulate growth, it must be accompanied by policies that address job creation and infrastructure development to ensure that the benefits of urbanization are broadly realized. Studwell identifies several African countries that have successfully navigated this transition, including Botswana, Mauritius, Ethiopia, and Rwanda.

These nations share two key characteristics: a focus on productive smallholder agriculture and the ability of leaders to forge development coalitions that transcend ethnic divisions. Productive smallholder agriculture, supported by private ownership and labor, is essential for rural productivity growth and the creation of domestic demand that fuels industrial expansion.

While radical land reforms have largely failed in Africa, alternative strategies for empowering smallholders have shown promise. Additionally, effective leadership capable of uniting diverse ethnic groups, as seen in Mauritius, Tanzania, Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria, is critical for implementing cohesive development strategies.

In assessing future growth prospects, Studwell advises that while density is necessary, it is not sufficient. Economic development in Africa requires moving up the manufacturing value chain to achieve sustained productivity growth. Competing in global markets demands skilled labor, advanced technologies, and other capabilities that are often lacking in developing countries.

Consequently, many argue that Africa should prioritize industrialization and aim to advance services, including non-tradable ones. Nevertheless, Studwell's insights challenge conventional wisdom and underscore the importance of addressing population density as a foundational element in Africa's development narrative.