Why Gaza peace deals keep unraveling

In late July 2025, the Board of Peace in Edinburgh released a 15-point plan aimed at achieving peace in Gaza. The plan proposed that Hamas hand over its weapons to a committee of Palestinian technocrats, verified by an international body, while Israel would gradually withdraw from the territory. However, Israel rejected the proposal on August 9.

Jared Kushner, the US envoy, traveled to Egypt to meet with Hamas representatives. He then suggested that the weapons could be handed over under the supervision of an American general in Jerusalem. This change in the disarmament process highlights a recurring issue with Gaza peace agreements: they often fail to establish clear mechanisms for compliance certification.

The University of Edinburgh's Peace Agreement Database recorded four agreements related to the Gaza ceasefire in 2025. These included a ceasefire deal in January, several ceasefire and related agreements in October, and a UN resolution in November. These agreements addressed issues like hostage and prisoner exchanges, and established a transitional authority for Gaza. However, they did not define what constituted a breach, who would adjudicate disputes, or how to resume the process after a violation.

The January agreement was the most detailed among the four, outlining hostage exchange numbers, Israeli troop withdrawal routes, and family return sequences. However, it did not specify consequences for non-compliance. The guarantors - the US, Egypt, and Qatar - were tasked with facilitating further negotiations, with a follow-up mechanism announced by Qatar's prime minister rather than formally written into the deal.

When the first phase of the January agreement ended on March 1, Israel resumed its bombing campaign after two months of limited progress. The October 2025 agreements aimed to restore the process through renegotiated terms. The October 10 agreement sought to address the lack of enforcement mechanisms in the January deal by creating a coordination center in Israel under US Central Command. However, aid restrictions and a lack of governance remained issues.

The October 13 Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity, signed by US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey leaders, committed signatories to regional principles but was not signed by Israel or Hamas. The UN resolution in November endorsed the Trump plan and established the Board of Peace as a new transitional body overseeing Gaza's political transition, yet it did not specify members or enforcement procedures.

Without a defined arbiter and governing arrangement that includes Palestinians in Gaza, the disarmament process risks repeating previous cycles of deadlock and violence.